Iran Sees US Midterms as Key in Ongoing Conflict with Trump

Sep 10, 2026

69 min

Sep 10, 2026 14:30

Iran war: Why Tehran sees Trump’s midterms as its next battlefield

## Tehran's Strategy Amid US Elections

As the US midterm elections approach on November 3, 2026, Iran is intensifying its actions in the Strait of Hormuz and targeting US military assets. Analysts suggest Tehran aims to increase the political and economic costs of the ongoing conflict for President Donald Trump.

## Impact on US Politics

The midterms are crucial for Trump, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for grabs. A loss for Republicans could hinder Trump's legislative agenda and make it difficult to confirm officials and judges. Iran's actions, including raising fuel prices, could sway voters against Trump.

## Tehran's Calculations

Iran believes it can exploit US vulnerabilities, particularly as Trump's approval rating has dropped to 33% amid dissatisfaction over the war and living costs. Tehran sees the election period as a chance to reshape the regional order to its advantage.

## Risks for Iran

Despite its strategy, Iran faces significant risks. The country has suffered military and economic damage, and its leadership is in transition following the death of Ali Khamenei. Analysts warn that Iran might overestimate how much escalation the US will tolerate.

## Conclusion

Both Washington and Tehran view the upcoming elections as pivotal, but with differing expectations. Trump hopes for a resolution post-election, while Iran sees the period leading up to it as an opportunity to influence the conflict's trajectory.

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