Dubai's Population Growth to Support Property Market Stability

Mar 9, 2026

79 min

Mar 9, 2026 05:32

Dubai’s growing population set to sustain property momentum, analysts say

## Population Growth and Property Market

Dubai's property market is expected to remain stable despite a potential moderation in prices over the next 12 to 18 months. Analysts believe that the emirate's growing population will help absorb the influx of new housing supply, maintaining demand.

## Market Dynamics

In 2025, Dubai saw over 270,000 real estate transactions valued at Dh917 billion, with off-plan sales making up 72% of residential deals. Although a supply surge is anticipated, the market is not expected to face a severe downturn. Moody's Ratings predicts a mild decline in developer sales and slight price pressure, particularly in the apartment sector.

## Segment Variations

Price trends will vary across different property segments. Apartments, especially affordable units, may see small price declines, while villas are likely to experience slower price growth due to stronger demand and limited supply.

## Supply and Demand Balance

Moody's forecasts around 180,000 new residential units in Dubai from 2026 to 2028. If population growth continues at 6% annually, this supply could be absorbed quickly. However, a more moderate growth rate of 3% would require about 40,000 new units each year to maintain balance.

## Developer Resilience

Despite slower sales, major developers are cushioned by strong revenue backlogs. Smaller developers, however, may face challenges due to less financial security.

## Financing and Risks

Real estate financing has shifted, with banks reducing exposure to the sector. Developers are increasingly turning to sukuk and bond markets for funding. While the market remains robust, a significant downturn would likely require a broader loss of confidence rather than supply issues alone.

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