Middle East Oil and Gas Recovery Faces Delays Despite Ceasefire

Apr 8, 2026

79 min

Apr 8, 2026 21:30

Why Middle East oil and gas recovery could take months despite ceasefire

## Shipping and Damage Hurdles

The Middle East's oil and gas sector is experiencing a slow recovery despite a ceasefire, with significant production still halted. Approximately 11 million barrels per day remain offline, largely due to shipping challenges through the Strait of Hormuz. Alan Gelder from Wood Mackenzie highlights the need for a reliable transit system and shipowner confidence to resume operations.

## Storage and Production Challenges

Storage capacities vary across the region, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia having about a month's worth, while Iraq and Kuwait have less than two weeks. Iraq's return to pre-war production levels could take six to nine months due to operational constraints, according to Fraser McKay of Wood Mackenzie. Rushing production could cause long-term damage.

## War Damage and Gas Market Impact

The conflict has damaged over 40 energy assets, affecting supply chains. Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex may take up to five years to repair, impacting gas recovery. Tom Marzec-Manser from Wood Mackenzie notes that domestic gas infrastructure in the UAE has suffered more than oil, requiring extensive repairs.

## Refinery and Field Restart Timelines

Restart timelines vary: small oil fields may take two to three weeks, larger fields up to five weeks, and refineries 10 to 15 days if undamaged. Extended shutdowns risk complications like corrosion and pressure imbalances, according to industry expert Matt Randolph.

## Gradual Recovery Process

The recovery involves a phased approach: securing shipping lanes, clearing storage bottlenecks, and gradually restoring production. Each stage introduces potential delays, leading to a staggered recovery that may take months to fully restore capacity.

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