Robredo-Tulfo Lead in Hypothetical 2028 Philippine Election Poll

May 13, 2026

68 min

May 13, 2026 17:30

Philippines: Robredo–Tulfo tandem overtakes Duterte–Marcos in first hypothetical 2028 matchup: Poll

## Survey Results

A recent OCTA Research survey indicates a potential shift in the Philippine political landscape for the 2028 presidential election. The hypothetical pairing of Leni Robredo and Raffy Tulfo has garnered 44% voter preference, surpassing the 40% support for the tandem of Sara Duterte and Imee Marcos. The survey, conducted in late March, involved face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents and has a margin of error of ±3%.

## Regional Dynamics

The survey highlights significant regional differences. Robredo-Tulfo leads in the National Capital Region and Balance Luzon, while Duterte-Marcos maintains strong support in Mindanao. The Visayas and Balance Luzon are emerging as key battlegrounds, indicating a shift from traditional regional loyalties to candidate image and perceived competence.

## Socioeconomic Factors

The survey also reveals a class divide in voter preferences. Robredo-Tulfo is favored by Class D respondents, whereas Duterte-Marcos leads among Class E voters. Despite the hypothetical nature of the poll, both Robredo and Tulfo have publicly expressed no current plans to run in 2028, while Duterte has shown interest in the presidency.

## Implications

The findings suggest a potential change in voter behavior, with a growing focus on cross-regional appeal rather than strict tribal affiliations. This could signal a shift in how Filipinos approach national leadership, though entrenched regional loyalties remain influential, particularly in Mindanao and other areas dominated by political clans.

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