UAE Predicts 99% Chance of El Niño Until December 2026

Jul 10, 2026

47 min

Jul 10, 2026 12:31

UAE forecasts 99 per cent chance of El Niño conditions through December 2026

## El Niño Conditions Expected to Persist

The UAE's National Center of Meteorology has forecasted a 99% likelihood of El Niño conditions continuing from August to December 2026. This climate pattern is anticipated to influence the country's weather, with temperatures and rainfall expected to be near or above seasonal averages.

## Current Climate Indicators

The Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index, a key measure of El Niño, currently stands at 1.2°C, indicating a moderate El Niño. This index reflects the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which have remained above average, while those in the western Pacific are below average.

## Impact on UAE Weather

The continuation of El Niño is likely to result in noticeable weather changes in the UAE, particularly towards the end of the year. The country is expected to experience temperatures and rainfall levels that are higher than usual, aligning with the global impacts of this climate phenomenon.

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